Professorial Fellow in International Relations at Oxford University S. Neil MacFarlane spoke in an interview.
– Do you believe that normalizing the Turkish-Armenian relations will have a positive effect on Turkey and pave a way for its EU admission?
Neil MacFarlane: I think it will affect Turkey positively. It would have some economic effect, but as you suggest the real effects would be on the relationship with the EU. I think normalization is probably a precondition for further progress on Turkish membership. On the other hand, this issue is not the most important one in the Turkey-EU process. Turkey has some way to go in meeting EU expectations on governance. And, to be frank, some members would find it politically difficult to accept Turkish entry even in the best of circumstances.
Q: Media reports claim Turkey and Armenia will sign an agreement on establishing diplomatic relations on Oct. 10-11. What “diplomatic relations” could mean? Opening of the embassy or launching a visa regime?
A: Basically, establishing diplomatic relations involves each side recognizing the other, and usually the exchange of ambassadors and establishment of an embassy. The latter is not required. Canada, for example, recognizes Georgia but has no embassy there. The issue of a visa regime is separate, but diplomatic relations are generally a prerequisite for the establishment of a visa regime.
Q: What, in your opinion, should be expected from a possible meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents in Chisinau given the newly updated Madrid principles?
A: I am not optimistic about the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Compromise remains extremely difficult for both sides for domestic political reasons.
Q: The UN Security Council has imposed numerous sanctions on Tehran, and according to media reports, the number of sanctions could grow if the Iranian nuclear issue is not resolved. However, Iranian representatives assert their position, and even said they would welcome new sanctions. From your viewpoint, what may be the least painful way out of this situation?
A: The least painful would be for Iran to accept full IAEA inspection and halt its enrichment programme. They are not, in my view, going to do that. So I suspect, there will be an effort at tougher sanctions. Whether that effort succeeds depends on Russia and also China.
Day.Az
