Interview with editor-in-chief of “Russia in global politics” magazine Fyodr Lukyanov.
In your recent interview with Ekho Moskvy radio station you said that “Karabakh will never return to Azerbaijan any more. This issue is not even debated.” Can you explain why do you think so?
Due to certain circumstances there is certain context in the South Caucasus and possibly in the entire post-Soviet area. Certain situation has been formed over the past 20 years – self-declared “states” have appeared in the territory of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova.
Until 2008, the Soviet administrative borders were taboo, they were considered inviolable. But later some circles had a different view of things. In some particular cases, the process moved to a qualitatively different phase after the partial recognition of Kosovo, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. It certainly has a definite influence on the negotiations on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as the future of, for example, Trans-Dniester. That’s what I had in mind. Of course, the statement “Karabakh will never be a part of Azerbaijan” is nonsense.
In your interview you also said that Armenia has occupied seven regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. In your opinion, how soon they will be returned to Azerbaijan?
Fundamental breakthrough is less likely to happen in near future. But the seven districts are part of a wide debate about future of Karabakh. Nobody has yet thought of something more serious than the formula of “peace in exchange for territory” in, for example, the Middle East, which is the most longstanding and deeply studied conflict region.
However, they have not been able to agree on what security guarantees decent compensation for the loss of control over part of the territory may provide.
You also said that Turkey intends to become a regional leader in the Caucasus and that it appears to succeed. What is the role of Ankara, the Kremlin and Washington in solving the Karabakh conflict in near future?
Turkey won more than the rest from the situation that changed in the region after the war in the Caucasus. Due to its geopolitical, transit, cultural conditions it becomes very important independent actor not only in the South Caucasus and the Middle East and Asia Minor.
The strength of Turkey, among other things, is that Ankara maintains working and normal relations with all – Israel and Syria, Iran and the United States, Russia and Georgia. This offers great opportunities to maneuver. Obstacle is unsettled relations with Armenia, and steps to unfreeze them are completely understandable. It is important for Turkey not in the Caucasus, but in a much more general context to become a kind of “universal broker”. So, Turkey is seriously interested in normalizing ties with Armenia. But Ankara is unlikely to sacrifice Azerbaijan for this process.
Accordingly, Ankara should be interested in progress in resolving the Karabakh problem, especially in compromise progress. I think that Turkey will be active in this direction.
In fact, Moscow and Washington have the same interests. But today anyone is hardly willing to provide a really strong pressure on conflicting parties to compel them to agreement. Much will depend on developments on a global level. Thus, depending on what will happen with Iran and around it, situation in the South Caucasus can significantly change.
today.az
