Interview with Alexei Malashenko, expert at the Carnegie Center Moscow Branch and renowned political expert.
Turkish PM Erdogan is going to trip to Moscow. In your opinion, do Russia and Turkey share certain common views regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and opening of the Armenia-Turkey border?
I see no common views in this matter between Moscow and Ankara. Probably, Moscow comes to understand that Ankara will gradually act as Russia’s rival in South Caucasus, not enemy, but rival. Because Ankara is very active, it is able to talk with Russia and bargain with it. For example, Turkey’s relations with Abkhazia are not so bad with which Moscow is pleased, but for the time being.
So, I think that talks in the Kremlin will be more than diplomatic. Most likely, they will be success. But I believe that Russia will have a very serious competitor in the South Caucasus. It will be very difficult for Russia to pursue its own policy at a time of difficult relationship with Georgia and two dependent or independent Abkhazia and South Ossetia while Ankara is very active.
As to the borders and Armenia-Turkey relations, these are own business of Armenia and Turkey. In my view, it will have no serious impact on Russia. The another thing is that the opening of the borders and improving Armenia-Turkey relations will reduce Russia’s role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict since Turkey is a very strong player with both economic and political leverages.
So, it is very difficult to predict what will Erdogan and Russian leaders will speak to each other. Moreover, Turkey is good at interpreting all negotiations in its favor and defend its own opinion. Today Moscow faces a very big problem – how to behave. So, talks claiming that the Karabakh conflict will be solved during the visit will remain juts talks. No steps will be taken to reverse the situation.
In your view, will the parliaments of both countries ratify the Armenian-Turkish protocols?
The current authorities of the two states will do everything to get the protocols ratified. As the situation in the Armenian parliament is not easy one, any option can take place. I think that it will be easier for Turkey. It will pass this decision sooner or later.
How do you comment on Turkey’s demands that Armenia must withdraw from at least five of the seven occupied regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh before the protocols with Armenia are ratified?
I think Armenia will have to withdraw from these regions in any case. This is the only thing that can be achieved in this regard. Because the return of Nagorno-Karabakh is out of the question. But liberating these surrounding regions are unambiguous. Most likely, they will not be liberated easily. There will be some bargain in this issue, too. Turkey’s position is strong in this respect. The question is what price Armenians will offer for this.
In your opinion, to what extent Armenia is likely to agree to return control of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region back to Azerbaijan?
There is no need to speak about distant future. We simply need to pay attention to other conflicts. For example, in the Middle East. This is perpetual conflict. It is unclear what will happen to Cyprus not to mention Abkhazia and South Ossetia. That is, there is some new problem which will be eternal.
I think that Nagorno Karabakh will be the very eternal problem unless quite fantastic disasters will happen such as the fact that all Armenians will leave California and France, or the Caspian Sea will approach Karabakh. All this is possible, so I think that the controversial situation around Nagorno-Karabakh will never end. In any case, one will never recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent, while others will never recognize it as part of Azerbaijan. Again, this is not only the local situation. This qualitatively new situation in international relations, which has seen no final solution so far.
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