Interview with well-known Russian journalist, editor chirf of St. Petersburg-based “Konservator” newspaper, member of the Central Council of the all-Russia Congress of Azerbaijanis Rustam Arifjanov.
Recent Washington meetings revealed that Ankara is firm in its position, and is not going to open border with Armenia until the occupants withdraw their troops from Azerbaijan’s lands…
Significant part of people involved in Armenia’s politics have already pushed the government and the president to refuse the Turkish-Armenian accords. They even say Armenia has the full right to withdraw from these protocols if Turkey does not meet their requirements till April 24 (when Armenia will mark next anniversary of the events in Eastern Turkey) and there is no progress.
We have already said that public opinion in Armenia over the Armenian-Turkish protocols and even the opening of the border is rather ambiguous. Not everyone wants it happen there. Great majority of people in Armenia live on money sent by the diaspora or relatives working abroad. Perhaps, that is why they are interested in opening the border with Turkey.
Yerevan will further appeal to the United States and the European countries to out pressure on Turkey. But, Armenians will not be willing to accelerate this process.
In general, the Turkish-Armenian accords were signed under pressure by the Obama administration. Therefore, Yerevan will not come up with any initiative without Obama’s influence. The U.S. president is the most interested party in the ratification of the protocols.
Prior to the Washington trip, Armenian President Sargsyan said that Armenia had already passed a decision on the Armenia-Turkey normalization and he will announce it in Washington. But when in U.S., Sargsyan did not make any public statements on this matter…
This decision may be related with Yerevan’s supposition that Turkey’s slowness or reluctance to open borders and restore diplomatic relations with Armenia are connected only with active foreign policy efforts of Azerbaijan. Armenia believes that Turkey will agree on everything if Azerbaijan is excluded from this process.
But this is not true. Turkey has quite complicated relationship with Armenia. The Turkish and Armenian peoples did not have smooth relations historically either. Therefore, some significant forces in Turkey do not want to ratify the Protocols regardless of the situation in the South Caucasus.
If the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are jeopardized, of course, there will be a double resistance to this process. Armenia does not take into account the realities of Turkey’s modern politics, thinking that Ankara is under pressure from Azerbaijan in this context. I think that Turkey is quite powerful country to understand all the pros and cons of opening borders with Armenia even without Azerbaijan.
On its part, Azerbaijan also makes some moves. When Turkish authorities communicate slightly warmer with the Armenian leadership, we immediately see that high officials in Azerbaijan begin to more closely interact with the northern or southern neighbors. These are rather political and diplomatic games.
Therefore, internal political situation is the most important factor for this. Erdogan knows that vast majority of Turkey’s population sympathizes with Azerbaijan. And any move unfavorable for Azerbaijan by the Turkish government will weaken support for the ruling party even without pressure from Azerbaijan.
Turkish media reported that at a meeting with Erdogan, Obama promised to do everything possible to solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Did you think America is really interested in bringing full settlement to the conflict?
America really wants to be the party which will resolve the conflict. Because the one who cuts this Gordian knot in the South Caucasus will raise its geopolitical banner there.
Recently, Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that they have their own plan to settle the Karabakh problem. I do not really believe this plan is effective because Tehran is anxious to see everything to be solved either by Russia or the U.S. instead of him. So, it tries to manipulate the situation with the help of some alleged plan.
Today Azerbaijan and Armenia are not able to solve this problem on their own. Therefore, Obama’s striving to solve this problem putting pressure on Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan is understandable.
In this sense, Azerbaijan enjoys both difficult and quite advantageous position because it is not under Russian influence like Armenia, and not so involved in the pro-American orbit like Turkey or Georgia.
So, Azerbaijan looks quite independently, leading not pro-Iran, not pro-European, not pro-American, and not even pro-Turkish policy in the South Caucasus. Something that Azerbaijani opposition dreamed for 20 years of independence has finally happened – Azerbaijan lead a pro-Azerbaijani policy.
To what degree the relationship between the U.S. and Turkey are strong and positive given that the Armenians hope very much Obama will utter the word “genocide” on April 24?
It’s a bit like schoolchildren’s game – will say or will not say. It is clear that diplomats come up with all sorts of games, and pretend to show that very much in politics is solved by certain words. It is hard to predict what will the U.S. president say.
If Obama declines to utter this word, it will arise much protest in Armenia. Yerevan understands that it cannot solve this issue only through Russia’s help without the U.S. support. Therefore, Obama’s speech will probably be symbolic. It will actually show degrees of relations with Armenia and Turkey at the moment when the president would turn to Congress. It will not be helpful to predict how events will further unfold.
If one puts U.S. relations with Armenia and relations with the Armenian lobby in one cup of the scale and the relations with Turkey, America’s interests in the South Caucasus and Middle East, interests in the Islamic world, interests of NATO, Turkey’s position as a counterweight to Iran to another cup, it is clear what the balance will be. Current U.S. leadership is composed of very intelligent people, so I do not know what should happen so that the heavier part of the scales does not outweigh the lighter one.
/Today.Az/
