Day.Az interview with a professor at the Saint Petersburg State University, Russian political expert Dmitry Gavra.
What is your assessment of the current state of Russia-Turkey relations?
Today we are witnessing some revival of relations which the history of relations between the two countries has not seen for about a century when Turkish Republic led by Kemal Ataturk, signed an agreement with the Soviet Union headed by Vladimir Lenin. During that time the countries had difficult relations. We remember also Caribbean Crisis, after which the Americans decided to deploy its missiles in Turkey.
Now we can say with confidence that we see not just thaw, but a real spring in relations between the two countries. One of the reasons for the new development in relations is a huge progress in Turkey in terms of development of civil society, a breakthrough in the XXI century. Turkey has become one of the fastest growing states in Europe. Russia also wants to modernize, and in this respect the Turkish azimuth is extremely important for Russia. Moreover, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey became one of the major geopolitical players on the Trans-Caucasian area and Central Asia. In other words, today Turkey is a significant player not only for the blood brother like Azerbaijan, but also for the countries of Central Asia and Russia.
In your opinion, may the intensified Russia-Turkey relations speed up resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in terms of a certain pressure on Armenia?
It is Russia’s strategic interest to see Karabakh problem resolved so that both Armenia and Azerbaijan will preserve Russia as their strategic partner. This task proved very difficult. Russia will not be able to accomplish it on its own. But along with Turkey, this problem seems quite feasible.
Another thing is that economic issues, including transit of hydrocarbon reserves, Turkey’s involvement with large economic projects in Russia’s territory, Russia’s participation in development of some industries in Turkey and security of Russia’s south borders will top agenda of Putin’s talks in Ankara.
The Karabakh conflict will also be discussed. Russia understands Turkey’s concerns that Azerbaijan’s interests are not infringed in the resolution process. I think all what the parties will discuss in Ankara about Karabakh issue will be hidden from the public eye.
However, I do not expect any tangible breakthrough. I have no doubt that the Turkish side will make its desire clear to Russian that Armenia should receive another significant signal about the need to compromise.
In your view, how long will Armenia delay its attitude to updated Madrid principles which Azerbaijan has already accepted?
Armenia cannot keep silent about the updated Madrid principles indefinitely. Indeed, one should understand internal political situation in Armenia. Sometimes foreign policy activities of Armenian leaders are restricted by troubled political situation in the country. Both Russia and Azerbaijan want pragmatic people to hold power in Armenia. So, excessive foreign pressure can cause increased internal political pressure in Armenia.
The planned amendments to the law “On Education” and “On Primary Education” that envisage opening of foreign-language schools in Armenia have caused a large public discontent in the country…
Armenia is a European country. There is a Charter of the Council of Europe on minority languages, languages of regional minorities which allows education in different languages other than national language as well. And I am glad that the Armenian government intends to make such amendments to the aforementioned laws. But the fact that today people took to Yerevan streets to protest shows some politicians are looking for any excuse to get people into the streets and overthrow the existing power.
The issue of amendments has a political coloring. And the fact that some forces in Armenia are based on nationalist motives in this matter is, of course, bad. It means that there should be a targeted pressure on Armenia. The main task for Moscow and Baku is that smart people who understood that their country has not only today but also tomorrow hold power in Armenia.
/Today.Az/
