Day.Az interview with Maxim Bratersky, professor at World Politics Department under the Saint Petersburg-based Higher School of Economics.
Armenia has not yet expressed its attitude to the updated Madrid principles unlike Azerbaijan. In your opinion, what impact Yerevan’s silence in this respect will have on talks? How long Armenia will delay the answer?
In fact, process has somewhat stalled over the recent months. No moves forward have been made. Delaying voicing its attitude to the updated Madrid principles, Armenia holds down the whole negotiation process. It is also worth mentioning that it was Armenia that froze the dialogue with Turkey. It is possible that internal political matters in Armenia are the main causes for such decisions.
To be honest, at this moment I see no prospects for settling the Karabakh conflict. However, I note the process may see certain changes some time as Turkey has become actively engaged in this process and plays a more constructive role. Ankara has always contributed to the settlement process. In last two years, Turkey has been increasingly engaged in the settlement process, offering its mediation services.
Recently there have been reports about Turkey’s intention to join the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs…
And I think it is possible, in the long run. Once again, Turkey has begun to play a more substantial role in the region. This is partly explained by the fact that previously Turkey was eager to join the EU for a long time. Two years ago Ankara realized that the organization is not willing to take it up. That’s it.
Being rejected the EU admission, Turkey, being a rich, powerful and wealthy country, has become a full-fledged regional power. Now Ankara has a different look at its regional interests, it builds relations with its immediate neighbors and with Russia in a different way. In other words, it has become more active in regional politics. In this new status Turkey may well become one of the active participants of the Karabakh talks. Most importantly, the neighbors now have a different attitude towards Turkey.
In your opinion, may Turkey have a significant impact on resolution of the Karabakh conflict?
Turkey is a new great power. It will do nothing bad to the conflict settlement. It can only bring improvements to very serious and deep problem, that is Nagorno-Karabakh issue. Turkey can create better conditions for the conflict settlement and can offer economic preferences to the parties.
It is believed that positions of Russia and Azerbaijan have become closer lately. Do you agree with this?
I think no abrupt changes will take place in countries’ positions. Perhaps the points of emphasis will change. Due to Turkey’s enhanced efforts, Russia will also begin to have a different look at the region. Ankara has become a key partner for Moscow in the region. Hence, Turkey’s interests will be considered by Moscow. Turkey’s position that meets Azerbaijan’s interest is heard by Moscow even better than before. The relations between Russia and Turkey are rapidly changing. In truth, given the huge tourist flow from Russia to Turkey and high volume of trade between the countries, in Russia Turkey was often perceived as successful, but some sort of third world country.
Today, Turkey is perceived differently in Moscow. Turkey has a growing, strong economy, with which its strategic interests are linked. Billions of contracts are signed with Turkey, including those in nuclear energy. Important communications cross Turkey’s territory. The situation is changing towards the afore-said union.
It should be noted things are not smooth in North Caucasus region of Russia at all and the attitude to the North and the South Caucasus will gradually be reviewed. Azerbaijan has a very sensible and pragmatic leadership, which in this situation will wind find interesting and useful place for itself, because the situation is very favorable.
In your opinion, what stance will Russia take in event of hostilities?
It will continue to oppose the military solution to the conflict.
/Day.Az/
