Interview with research fellow at the Russia-based Institute of Religion and Politics and political expert Zurab Todua.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev pays an official visit to Turkey today. What do you expect from this visit? How can you characterize the current state of the Russia-Turkey relations?
These relations can be characterized as very good and even excellent, mutually beneficial with great potential. Relations between Russia and Turkey are developing continuously and steadily over the last 15 years. Today, both countries share many political, economic, cultural and even military ties.
During the current visit more than 20 papers in the field of trade and economic relations, transport, agriculture, energy, education are expected to be signed. Medvedev said in an interview published in the Turkish newspaper “Zaman” on May 10 that “Russia and Turkey are becoming strategic partners, and Moscow sees Ankara as good and reliable neighbor. The intention of the parties to form a top-level Cooperation Council to be led by the Russian president and Prime Minister of Turkey supports this statement. The objective of this council is to develop a strategy and direction of development of bilateral relations, monitor the implementation of important projects and facilitate contacts between businessmen of both countries.
I think that the Russian-Turkish relations can serve as an example of how one can and should build relationships between countries.
However, it is obvious that none of this would happen if Moscow and Ankara were focused on their past finding out which party suffered much from the Russian-Turkish war. The leaders and political community of Russia and Turkey show the highest state of wisdom. They left the history to historians, and engaged to establish and develop mutually beneficial relations. I am sure this course is the most suitable and profitable, and it is supported by the vast majority of population in Russia and Turkey.
Some experts believe, that lately Turkey has played an increasing role in the region. Do you agree with the views that Russia is concerned with this kind of situation, as well as prospects for Turkey to become a regional superpower?
No, I do not agree with this kind of assessment of the situation. Turkey behaves responsibly in the international arena and in the South Caucasus region and understands all the features and complexity of international problems and issues. There are no serious grounds to be concerned with prospects for Turkey’s becoming a regional power.
Russia and Turkey today are involved together in large-scale trade and economic projects and communications, which are estimated at tens and even hundreds (potentially) billions of dollars. No one wants to thwart these plans. I am sure the leaders of Russia and Turkey will always be able to agree, without prejudice to their own interests on all contentious issues.
Are Russia and Turkey’s views on resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict similar or different?
Official positions of Moscow and Ankara are based on a need to preserve territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. We can see the similarity of positions in this respect. Some differences are observed in approaches to the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, security and protection of the interests of its residents, the return of refugees and others. I believe that, in general, there are more common points, rather than differences.
In your opinion, can Turkey become fourth co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group? Can this facilitate resolution to the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Theoretically, it is possible. But in practice, I think this proposal will meet opposition as Turkey obviously sympathises with Azerbaijan. Turkey’s becoming Minsk Group co-chair will strengthen Azerbaijan’s position. It is unlikely to accelerate the settlement process.
The Minsk Group is quite functional and effective in its current composition. All the complaints about it is to the fact that the conflicting parties expect a miracle from it, namely, a solution to that would be fully satisfy only Azerbaijanis or only Armenians. But this is impossible. The final document on the conflict settlement will be a compromise.
How do you assess the current situation in the South Caucasus region as a whole?
The answer to this question requires a thorough analysis of the situation in each country of the South Caucasus. If we restrict ourselves very brief overview, we can say the following. I have repeatedly said before that Azerbaijan is in a better position than other countries in the region. These are geographic location and oil. But all this would be insufficient if Azerbaijan was not lucky with its rulers.
Heydar Aliyev was a politician from God. I remember in what condition he took Azerbaijan in 1993, and how left in 2003. During these difficult ten years I have repeatedly visited Azerbaijan (three to five times a year) and witnessed everything. Ilham Aliyev continues the course of his father and does it more than successfully. Yes, there are still problems, but they are all solvable.
With regard to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the main thing here is that Azerbaijan retains possibility to solve the conflict based on its own interests. Armenia is in a more difficult position. Armenia’s stance left the country aside from the promising economic projects. Indeed, today Armenia is lagging behind for its socio-economic development.
/Day.Az/
