“Turkish and Armenian parliaments are unlikely to ratify the protocols as the sides have not reached a mutually satisfactory solution to the Nagorno Karabakh problem and problem of Turkey’s recognition of the “Armenian genocide”, research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexander Krilov said.
“Actually, these problems could be solved, but that was not achieved in process of negotiation. This gives grounds to conclude that the main purpose of the Turkish and Armenian leaders was not opening of border. It is important for Turkey to demonstrate its willingness to compromise in the terms of plans for EU accession.
“It is equally important that Ankara had an opportunity to improve the rather strained relations with the United States. Ankara has an important service to the new U.S. administration, giving it a welcome excuse to abandon its election campaign promises to officially recognize the “Armenian genocide” as such a move could complicate supposedly swift opening of the Armenian-Turkish border. For Armenia it is also important to show the EU its willingness to compromise in order to develop relations with the EU,” Krilov said.
“Most likely, Turkish and Armenian leaders are quite satisfied with the benefits from their diplomatic activity and will not “press” the agreement through parliament, since it implies too big challenges for them. Most likely, they will try to present failure of ratification of the agreement as evidence of high level development of democracy and express a firm intention to continue the peace process, which can take a very long time,” Krilov said.
Krilov also believes that “similar diplomatic games” have little effect on resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
“The sides (Armenia and Turkey) are engaged not in resolution of this conflict and not a solution to the problem related to Turkey’s recognition of “genocide”, but solution of entirely different problems. Solution of the Karabakh problem requires certain conditions: to normalize socio-economic life, a tremendous job to prepare the sides (elite and population) to compromise, to create an atmosphere of mutual tolerance and trust.”
“This will require long years, large financial resources and active work of the conflicting parties, international organizations and most influential states. A peaceful solution could not be simpler and faster. There will be no real ground to solve the Karabakh problem as long as all parties do not realize it. Attempts to bring swift and radical solution to the problem by force could lead to quite disastrous consequences as in case of Georgia.”
“I think Armenia will make no concessions to Azerbaijan, without real progress in the peace process and without the presence of firm security guarantees. More likely, the conflict will remain frozen as all parties involved are not laying groundwork for an integrated and comprehensive solution, but solving their own problems,” he said.
“It is clear that such state of affairs may not cause delight Azerbaijan and Armenia. But it is still more preferable than an shift of the conflict to a hot phase. While this has not happened the parties still have an opportunity to start a very difficult job to create a basis for a compromise solution to the problem,” the expert said.
/Day.Az/
