How will the recent incidents in South Caucasia influence the process of solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? This question became more urgent after both houses of Russian parliament passed the decision to recognize the separatist territories in Georgia as independent states.
The recent military confrontation struck great blow on the public opinion regarding “frozen conflicts” in the post-Soviet area, not only Georgia. After Russia’s recent step, belief in the possibility of military solution of “frozen conflicts” in the post-Soviet republics reduced. This is obviously felt in various comments, reviews, interviews and news touching upon events in Georgia. Indeed, has the option of military solution of “frozen conflicts” been removed from the agenda once and for all? In fact, it is incorrect to put the question in this way, it should be so, “Can the conflicts in the post-Soviet area be solved beyond Russia’s will?”
In actual, it is obvious whom the public addresses this question. The side that will answer the question is the West. To answer this question as “it is possible” the USA and European Union should achieve advance in the solution of at least one “frozen conflict” in the post-Soviet area. The possibility to choose the conflicts in Georgia for revenge is limited for the West. Russia has taken resolute steps as regards South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and proved that it will not abstain even from military confrontation to defend its interests.
For that reason, the West will have to make choice between Trans-Dniester and Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts, if it desires to shift public opinion in its favor. The first option is less reasonable, if we take into account that the USA’s interest in South Caucasia is superior to the interests in Moldova, Washington will probably choose Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as revenge. It is just one of the plots for transformation of Georgian processes to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
How the USA can take revenge? First of all, it is possible that Washington will leave its double standard position regarding Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and fully support Azerbaijan. In contrast to Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-Ossetian conflicts, the USA has a firm position regarding Nagorno-Karabakh conflict like Russia. At the same time, the USA has an opportunity to struggle with Russia in the same weight category in Azerbaijan unlike Georgia, i.e. the USA has an opportunity to influence both parties unlike Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the USA will take revenge on Russia in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict if their struggle for the interests is sharpens.
The USA is trying to avoid confrontations in South Caucasia as yet, and is interested in restoration of preceding situation. But as Moscow dictates the situation now, not Washington, the USA has to look through reserve options. The US Vice President, Richard Cheney’s visit to Azerbaijan shows that Washington intends to give a role of gravity center to Azerbaijan in its future plans. It is not ruled out that Richard Cheney will spend no less time on the discussions regarding solution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict than on energy corridors issue.
APA
