Interview with General Director of Center for Research of public – political processes in post Soviet Union space, deputy dean of History Department in Moscow State University, Alexey Vlasov
– What do you think, is it possible that Azerbaijan and Armenia Presidents came into agreement during the meeting in economical summit in June?
– It is possible. But I can estimate it less than 50%. More things here depend on the position of Armenia. In other words, if Yerevan is ready to sign any document where she is ready to come into agreement on Nagorna Karabagh issue. If Yerevan is not ready for that so I don’t think it will able to come into any agreement during Petersburg meeting.
– Vladimir Putin in his meeting with Turkish Prime Minister said that, Nagorna Karabagh conflict should be settled between two countries. Don’t you think that all these political negotiations are dead ended?
– The fact that the negotiations process started are very important. From my point of view, this is already a positive progress. If the demand for the negotiations increased then mediators have some proposals that could make two sides closer. Another thing is how Baku and Yerevan will react to these proposals. Key to the settlement of Nagorna Karabagh conflict is in Yerevan and Baku, of course.
– Members of the OSCE Minsk Group in every possible way says that the development in settlement of Nagorna Karabagh problem is developing on a positive way. In Baku, on these directions, opinion is not positive at all. How can you comment it?
– Well, of the mediators who are dealing with this issue for more than 15 years, and have no result then there is a base to have doubt to work of the OSCE Minsk Group. But at the same time, let me tell you, it looks like philosophical parable, – “the cup is half empty or half full”. Now this negotiation energized again with the initiator of Ankara. In international level it is time to solve this “frozen conflict”. I think that it is the first step that could be considered as a good will of the participants of conflict.
– There is an opinion that Russian tries to hold leading position as a mediator in regulation of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If the negotiations will be positive what do you think, what kinds of privileges will Russia have?
– In Russia, they understand very well that in conflict supporting one or the other side in conflict could easily destroy the balance which is already shaky. In other words, support of Azerbaijan could get negative support of Armenia, and the opposite the support of Azerbaijan could have the negative support of Armenia. That’s why; I think that it is very responsible and serious choice for Kremlin.
– According to some experts’ opinion, Russia uses the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a influence tool to the South Caucasian region. What do you thing, is anything changing in this direction?
– First, only the formats of the games in South Caucasus are changing in last 5-7 years. Different states getting attracted to it. I mean Turkey. Washington also, especially with presidency of Obama he tries to form new approach to this conflict.
– It is true that it is impossible for Nagorna Karabagh conflict to stay frozen for centuries; all actors should understand that the only effective steps are possible only via reasonable compromise.
Day.Az
