Day.Az interview with Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabayov.
What is happening in the process of settling the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Actually, nothing is happening in this process. It seems the negotiation process is taking a little pauzse, and the sides are thinking over their reactions on refined version of the Madrid principles proposed by the Minsk Group
But it was determined in Sochi that the parties will submit their comments and suggestions in a written form in two weeks. Time has passed, but there is not any move by co-chairing countries yet. They also do not hurry to visit the region. What is the reason?
Yes, it’s true. Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said at a press briefing with his Israeli counterpart Lieberman that although Azerbaijan has some objection, it is ready to accept the document proposed at a meeting in Sochi to reach a compromise. He also said that he had a phone talk with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov to specify whether the Armenian side has expressed its position, made a clarification or objections to the document on the negotiations’ table. It turned out that the Armenian has not yet voiced its official reaction.
It seems that the Sargsyan-Nalbandian tandem is in a very tough situation. So far, they displayed an ostentatious constructivism in a hope that Azerbaijan will thwart peace agreement with its objections. But Azerbaijan’s consent forces Armenia to open cards. Armenia does not want to accept the updated Madrid principles. This is clearly evident from the comments of the Armenian media.
In Serzh Sargsyan’s recent statement in the Chatham House in London, where he ignored the latest Minsk Group proposals and instead imposed biased Armenian version of the problem on the participants, also shows unwillingness to compromise. However, Armenia does not dare to reject the Sochi document, offered not only by the Minsk Group co-chairs, but President Dmitry Medvedev, president of a country that is a patron of Armenia. Armenia delays time hoping that suddenly the situation will take a turn in its own favor.
Armenia hopes that Turkey will ratify the Zurich protocols under the U.S pressure ruining the Azerbaijani-Turkish strategic alliance. In case of Turkey’s refusal to do so, the Armenians cherish dream that the U.S. Congress may recognize the so-called “genocide of 1915.”Armenia believes it will be able to derail a peace agreement that does not suit it without much implications for itself and to preserve status quo.
What are Armenia’s chances to achieve this?
Armenia has very small chances to do this. American congressmen will face re-election this autumn. Because of this, they become more susceptible to the Armenian lobby, which ensures votes and money of the Armenian voters. Washington is not very happy with Ankara’s stance on Iran, and believes that the Turkish support in Iraq and Afghanistan could be substantially greater. In addition, traditional close relations between Turkey and Israel took a bad turn and this may deprive Ankara of a traditional support for the Jewish lobby in the United States.
But Turkey also takes action…
Of course. As in the past year, delegation of the Turkish Parliament plans to visit the U.S. Turkish PM Erdogan and FM Davutoglu have made warnings in connection with the beginning of the discussion over the “genocide of 1915.” Ankara argues that consideration of so-called “Armenian genocide” in the Congress committee will fully torpedoe already stalled normalization process which still has some perspective. Ankara can also stop flights with Yerevan, make it difficult for Armenians to obtain visa, to restrict money transfers, send back illegal Armenian guest workers back to home.
They do not say it in a loud voice, but I believe that it has been made clear to the U.S. privately that adoption of resolutions unacceptable for Ankara will have extremely negative impact on US-Turkish relations. The Parliament can deny the U.S. to use Turkish territory for the supply and withdrawal of troops from Iraq and restrict use of Incirlik airbase. It already happened when the Bush administration undertook the invasion of Iraq to overthrow Saddam Hussein.
In response to the unwanted resolution of the American congressmen, the Parliament can take a decision on withdrawal of Turkish troops from Afghanistan. Turkey can also stop support in the Iranian issue. Let me remind you that Turkey is a non-permanent member of UN Security Council and it will take over chairmanship of this important international body.
In short, resolution on the “genocide of 1915” can throw oil on wounded consciousness of the Armenians, but not bring them practical use. Simultaneously, it will cause direct harm to U.S. national interests. I think that the reasons I have cited are quite obvious to the U.S. State Department, Pentagon and White House. These reasons are perfectly able to neutralize attempts of the Armenian lobbying organizations and the Armenian Caucus in Congress.
Clarity in this issue will come soon. But negotiation on settlement of the Karabakh conflict have stalled. Confrontational rhetoric is growing. Can it really lead to resumption of hostilities?
If Moscow and Washington clearly explain to the Armenian leadership that it makes no sense to delay time, chances of signing a framework agreement based on the updated Madrid principles are significant. May-June is deadline for this. Otherwise, growth of confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia is inevitable.
I do not think that large-scale military action will begin immediately. But the arms race will begin with greater force. The information war will be stepped up. Shooting can become permanent on the front line. It is possible that at one point all this will result in real clashes. The threat to peace can be so dangerous that it would require intervention of UN Security Council. But this is unwelcome scenario, which would negate long-term efforts for a peaceful settlement of the conflict.
May the sides expect real help from their allies? Can Azerbaijan expect help from Turkey, OIC, GUAM, and Armenia from Russia & CSTO?
There has always been such a support. For Armenians, it was crucial, because their own resources are not enough to face Azerbaijan. Russia pumped arms to Armenia, granted loans and the U.S. still continues to provide financial assistance. But now the situation in Armenia is not too favorable. Money is given less and less. It has become difficult to deliver weapons from Russia to Armenia after Georgia severed ties with Russia.. In addition, Moscow is eager not to jeopardize mutually beneficial economic relations with Azerbaijan and lose confidence contacts that it has established with Azerbaijani leadership.
In the event of renewed hostilities Armenia will not receive not only political and moral, but also military support from CSTO. Even Russia could not obtain desired reaction from the CSTO during the August war with Georgia in 2008. During the last year’s vote on a resolution on the situation in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan in the United Nations none of CSTO member countries showed solidarity with Armenia except for Russia. Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan abstained, and Uzbekistan supported Azerbaijan.
As for the Azerbaijan , I believe we can count on Turkey’s support. Turkey is ready to help Azerbaijan militarily, which is a signal to those, who believed we will stay alone with our problems. OIC was mostly providing political and moral support, but separate countries, like Pakistan, didn’t hide their willingness to act militarily. As for GUAM, speaking of political support to Azerbaijan, it was high enough, and all the included countries gave their votes to us in the UN.
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