Interview with Alikber Alikberov, head of the Center for the Study of Central Asia, Caucasus and Ural-Volga region at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies.
The U.S. House committee’s resolution recognizing the “Armenian genocide” in Ottoman Turkey has spared wide debates in Turkey and the United States as of late…
If the U.S. administration’s policy is based on political expediency taking into account current international situation, the decisions of Congress are often based on the primacy of values which are fundamental in American society.
Let’s take a look at this situation from the other side: for many years European leaders announced near-term membership of Turkey to the EU with details of integration being discussed at each summit. And the Turkish society believed in the promises of its soonest accession to EU.
What actually happened? The European Union has grown immeasurably failing to include Turkey. Moreover, prospect for Turkey’s membership is moving away each day because the political declaration is one thing, but the real perceptions of friend or foe is something quite different. The European Union has its own conferences, public opinion, institutions, finally, its own identity based on Christian culture and shared history even it may be contradictory. And there’s no getting around it.
This does not mean there is no the political motive involved. All sorts of political implications were debated while preparing the resolution within the committee of experts especially because the U.S. administration has repeatedly warned Congress of a possible deterioration in relations with Turkey. Nevertheless, the resolution was adopted.
In your opinion, will Turkey and the United States be able to return the relations to the previous level any time soon?
It does not make any sense to overestimate the significance of the congressional resolution for the relations between Turkey and the U.S.. At the same time, Turkey can not ignore it at all. I am sure that if it was about China, the U.S. Congress would have acted much more cautiously. The U.S. tries not to anger the Chinese “dragon”. The recall of ambassador is a predictable step by Turkey in response to an obvous neglect of its official position by the Congress.
And how would you comment on Turkey’s intentions to build closer ties with Russia?
With regard Turkey’s policy of rapprochement with Russia, both of these countries have great unused potential for cooperation and also an understanding in some matters of global cooperation. It would be strange if this potential is disregarded.
In your opinion, how will Russia act in this situation?
Russia will behave the same way as any self-respecting country would do in a similar situation: it will develop a multi-faceted policies. Of course, it will come closer to Turkey, but not to the detriment to its relations with Armenia or the United States. Russia’s rapprochement with Turkey may be synchronized with the process of rapprochement with Armenia-Turkey rapprochement and give new impetus to this process.
On the other hand, there is a unique opportunity for Armenia in its relations with Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan is a partner and ally not only for Turkey but also for Russia. Therefore, we should expect an intensification of contacts between the countries, including at the highest level. Perhaps in the coming months, we will witness a major breakthrough in relations between Russia and Turkey.
It is believed that closer ties with one country are built at the expense of relations with other countries. But it is not true. Observers are always interested in the reaction of either party at any event, such as how actually Azerbaijan perceives the process of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Of course, new commitments sometimes tie up hands, but they also often create more effective ways to address complex problems thanks to a higher level of mutual understanding and trust.
What impact these events had or may have on resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Karabakh issue is one of the intractable problems not only in the post-Soviet area, but also throughout the world. Neither the Minsk Group or Working Group of the Dortmund conference, nor any other international mechanisms involved in the process have achieved any meaningful results.
Even passive participation as an expert in several rounds of informal tripartite negotiations to achieve a preliminary conditions allowed me to understand the depth of the contradictions between the parties to the conflict. And the hopes that someone from third countries will solve this problem are unfounded.
Nobody will be able to force the conflicting parties to make friends until they themselves are ready to cooperate and compromise. More measures to ensure mutual trust between the main mediators will benefit the entire process. I think, a lot depends on how far Russia and Turkey will go in their rapprochement, and whether they will overcome their differences and take concrete decisions in terms of regional security.
How do you see an early resolution to the conflict given the positions and proposals of the parties?
Obviously, the problem has no military solution, consequences of which can further protract resolution of the conflict. The situation has long been hopelessly deadlocked due to the mutually exclusive claims of the parties who are not prepared to make whatever compromise is. Public opinion in all the republics as uncompromising. Demonstrating such a will requires a favorable political conditions in which compromise can be linked to the interests of the parties. Rapprochement between Russia and Turkey would greatly contribute to resolving the Karabakh conflict.
To achieve immediate results, Azerbaijan will also need new approaches and mechanisms that it has yet to create gievn the prevailing realities.
/Day.Az/
