İnterview with STRATFOR global intelligence company expert Marco Papic.
– What, in your opinion, Washington’s role in today’s dialogue between Armenia and Turkey? Can we speak of a certain pressure on Ankara?
Marco Papic: Not at all. U.S. will not pressure Turkey on this issue because it needs Turkish cooperation on much more important, from Washington’s perspective, topics. Here we are mainly talking about Iran, Iraq and even with Bosnia.
Q: What can you say about the possible opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia? In your opinion, will the Turkish-Armenian protocols be ratified by the Turkish Parliament?
A: Reopening of Turkish-Armenian border would be a positive development for Ankara. It would gain access into the region and also settle some of the frozen conflicts that destabilize its borders. Ankara wants a stable neighborhood so that it can spread its influence accordingly. In regards to the ratification of the protocols – Its difficult to gauge right now, but the Parliament will most likely not ratify anything that settles the diplomatic dispute between Ankara and Yerevan that does not also settle the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Q: How does the dialogue between Armenia and Turkey affect the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Can Baku expect any concessions on the Karabakh issue from Yerevan?
A: Thus far Turkey has maintained that without a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, there won’t be any resolution to the Turkish-Armenian talks. This seems to be still the case today and will continue to be the case. However, in the future, it is possible that Armenia will decide that normalizing its relations with Turkey will be more important than maintaining a hard-line on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
Q: How important, in your opinion, is now Armenian diaspora in Turkish-Armenian relations? What can be expected if the borders will be opened after all?
A: The diaspora is not as important as it is often portrayed. Yerevan is pretty much doing what it needs to do regardless of the diaspora’s position.
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